Consensus Means Proof, Right?
The debate about Global Warming is fascinating in so many ways.
For the true believers it is frustrating because some people will not be convinced to accept the believers point of view.
For the skeptics it is frustrating because so many people are convinced to accept the believers point of view even while the evidence is so thin and the conclusions are so far fetched.
For the undecided it is frustrating because the politicians and other powerful people are using the issue for their own agendas. Making it very hard to distinguish between the truth and the lies or errors.
I guess for me, a known skeptic in general, I am most amused by the green movement people who are trying to squelch debate by talking of consensus as proof of their theories of Global Warming. If there is proof, then they should definitely point to it. To say, however, that the matter is beyond debate because so many have been convinced is a nonstarter. It makes me wonder what they know. Are they trying to stop debate out of fear that the data will reverse direction as it did in passed pursuits of great theories of the past.
This reminds me of a small lesson I learned in 5th Grade. All of the students sat in a circle facing inward. The teacher asked a question that required us to express an opinion. There were two choices. The teacher whispered in the ear of one student who immediately voiced an opinion about which was the right answer. Another student, who did not confer with the teacher, disagreed. The class was then asked to chose which was right. After a few minutes, the whole class supported the student who had conferred with the teacher. The teacher then asked if the fact that everyone chose the “more knowledgeable student” made that the right answer. Most said yes. The teacher tried to convince the lone student that they were incorrect. The student swayed a bit but stood her ground. The teacher asked again, does the fact that everyone else agrees the other student is right, make him right. Most said yes it did. Then the teacher let us know we were all wrong and the lone student was correct. Regardless of how many people come to a consensus, it does not prove that consensus is correct.
No matter how many people believe the Earth is flat, or that bumps on the skull can predict a persons personality (Phrenology), or that the “hole” in the ozone layer is getting worse each year and must be dealt with immediately or the Earth will be :wink: irreparably harmed. All of these theories were accepted and had something of a consensus about the respective theory. They were widely accepted and taught. To question or disbelieve made you a laughing stock. These theories also have one other thing in common. They were all disproved and discarded. Consensus is not proof. Anybody who tries to use that argument as a means to “win” the debate, has resorted to the tactics of the lazy or the unsubstantiated.
There is an arrogance that says, inside of the human mind, that we are better now than they were back then. We know so much more now, so we can’t be fooled by the data or our own prejudices again. I say however, that in the centuries to come there will be as many amusing abandoned theories for them to look back at in our time as there are in any other throughout history. Humanity is very consistent in its errors and weaknesses. That is a theory I would bank on.
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